User blog:Ladysarah27/HH Trick Dino Probabilities


 * This blog is very much a work in progress. I am currently just running with my thoughts and it still needs a lot of work. I make no claim to being a statistician and I'm sure others could improve on my work.

If you have ever looked at BonesMcGee's blog (Brainstorm: Potential savings in using the hurry hatch trick), you know that I am an avid "hurry hatcher." I want to use this blog to analyse my own hurry hatch data and the data that has been collected on Bones' blog.

Dino Probability
When hatching a random dino, there is a specific probability for each species of dino. As RobinCarr has show in his blog about the Virtual Dino Den, common dinos are each assigned a probability value of 500. Rare dinos are assigned a probability of 1, 6, or 9. So certain rare dinos should be hatched less often than other rare dinos.

For instance, a sabretooth tiger should be a very rare dino since it has a probability value of 1. This means that, in theory, the sabretooth tiger should be hatched 1/2093 random hatches. Yet, it seems to appear much more often than would be expected using these probabilities. In my experience, when you compare the hatching of sabretooth tigers to other dinos that have the same probability value of 1, sabretooth tigers are hatched much more often than they should be.

Additionally, the data collected on BonesMcGee's blog seems to indicate that the oviraptor is a much more difficult dino to hatch. Using the probability values, the oviraptor and the sabretooth tiger should be hatched with about the same frequency. But this does not seem to be the case. We must take into account the date that the oviraptor was released, so that may be causing this perception.

So, I believe that the "actual" probability and "theoretical" probability (my own terms) differ quite significantly when you examine the Hurry Hatch (HH) data that we have collected. Of course, we only have a very small set of data compared to the total amount of hatches all Tiny Village players conduct. Our data could be skewed by the fact that we are only looking at a small portion of what is happening in the Tiny Village world. However, I think it would be interesting to see what the "actual" probability for dinos is according to our data.

I know that some users have already begun to examine this. This blog is just my own attempt to examine the data and to make some easy-to-read tables and graphs that display this info. Also, an analysis of my own and Bone's gathered HH data will help me to confirm or debunk my own assumptions. For example, perhaps I will find that the sabretooth tiger is no more likely than any other dino but rather that I simply feel like I am getting many of them.

First, I am going to examine my own HH data and actual dino probability. Then I will examine all of the HH data collected on Bones' blog and compare it to my own.