User blog comment:BonesMcGee/Brainstorm: Potential savings in using the hurry hatch trick/@comment-5116140-20120803001445/@comment-5116140-20120804010231

Get out of my mind!

RE: "So is the next step then to create some sort of log where users can post how many repetitions of the hatching trick it took to reach a hurry hatch cost not equal to 12 crystals?" Spot on Bones. But it has do be done carefully because there is a known psychological bias we will have to design out of the data collection with careful instructions. People often self report in a way that "makes them feel good" or in this case lucky. Also, some have argued that TV changes p frequently - but that might just be a false perception due to the very large variance associated with the geometric distribution when p is small. Can I get back this weekend with suggestions on this? I happen to have 16 carefully recorded data points that might make a good template to start of the discussion. I also like the idea of updating the probability p of success either daily or each Friday. Actually, publishing 1/p, the average number of tries will be more intuitive to people.

ID: TinyRobinEgg