User blog:Ladysarah27/HH Trick Dino Probabilities


 * This blog is very much a work in progress. I am currently just running with my thoughts and it still needs a lot of work. I make no claim to being a statistician and I'm sure others could improve on my work.

If you have ever looked at BonesMcGee's blog (Brainstorm: Potential savings in using the hurry hatch trick), you know that I am an avid "hurry hatcher." I want to use this blog to analyse my own hurry hatch data and the data that has been collected on Bones' blog. I am not examining how many attempts it takes to get a rare dino, but rather what are the probabilities regarding which rare dino you will receive.

Dino Probability
When hatching a random dino, there is a specific probability for each species of dino. As RobinCarr has show in his blog about the Virtual Dino Den, common dinos are each assigned a probability value of 500. Rare dinos are assigned a probability of 1, 6, or 9. So certain rare dinos should be hatched less often than other rare dinos.

For instance, a sabretooth tiger should be a very rare dino since it has a probability value of 1. This means that, in theory, the sabretooth tiger should be hatched 1/2093 random hatches. Yet, it seems to appear much more often than would be expected using these probabilities. In my experience, when you compare the hatching of sabretooth tigers to other dinos that have the same probability value of 1, sabretooth tigers are hatched much more often than they should be.

Additionally, the data collected on BonesMcGee's blog seems to indicate that the oviraptor is a much more difficult dino to hatch. Using the probability values, the oviraptor and the sabretooth tiger should be hatched with about the same frequency. But this does not seem to be the case. We must take into account the date that the oviraptor was released, so that may be causing this perception.

So, I believe that the "actual" probability and "theoretical" probability (my own terms) differ quite significantly when you examine the Hurry Hatch (HH) data that we have collected. Of course, we only have a very small set of data compared to the total amount of hatches all Tiny Village players conduct. Our data could be skewed by the fact that we are only looking at a small portion of what is happening in the Tiny Village world. However, I think it would be interesting to see what the "actual" probability for dinos is according to our data.

I know that some users have already begun to examine this. This blog is just my own attempt to examine the data and to make some easy-to-read tables and graphs that display this info. Also, an analysis of my own and Bone's gathered HH data will help me to confirm or debunk my own assumptions. For example, perhaps I will find that the sabretooth tiger is no more likely than any other dino but rather that I simply feel like I am getting many of them.

First, I am going to examine my own HH data and actual dino probability. Then I will examine all of the HH data collected on Bones' blog and compare it to my own.

Rough Data
This table holds the data collected on BonesMcGee's blog as well as the data collected here on this blog. I will make a note recording how up-to-date it is with Bones' data. It will contain the data posted on this blog whenever I have posted that a contribution has been added. The table does not record the number of attempts because this does not affect the probability I am examining here.
 * I am still testing the table. The rest of the data will be added soon.

"Actual" Dino Probability (Rare Eggs Received Using the HH Trick)
This data counts my own HH eggs through Oct. 6 and the posts on Bones' blog through Jellyzandergirl's rare eggs on Oct. 9 (as of when she posted, not as shown on Bones' table). The percentages may not add up to 100% exactly. Also, some percentages may not be completely accurate because the dino was released recently, ex. dilophosaurus.
 * The table is sortable. Just click on the headings to sort. The sorting arrows are not showing up for some reason.
 * Pie charts soon to be posted

Analysis
First, I have now realized that I HH too much ; ) My results account for 33.5% of the total rare eggs received through the HH trick. Overall, my results are in line with the other 66.5% of results that Bones has collected.

Accounts of numerous sabretooth tigers and bambiraptors have not been exagerated. When compared to other dinos that also have a probability value of 1, these dinos occur much more frequently. For instance, the raptor, the brontosaurus, and the minmi have all been available for the entire amount of time that we have been collecting this data. However, the sabretooth tiger and bambiraptor have occured about 3 times more often than these other dinos despite all having the same probability value.
 * More analysis coming in the future

"Theoretical" Dino Probability
Based on the probability values for rare dinos, we can see that, in theory, certain rare dinos should appear more often than others and some rare dinos should appear with the same frequency. For instance, the sabretooth tiger and the minmi both have a probability value of 1 and should appear about the same amount of times. In order to see how our results compare to the expected results, we must calculate what I call the "theoretical" probability. The theorectical probability is what the probability values lead us to expect when HHing.
 * I'm a bit unsure of this section so please make a suggestion if you believe I am calculating this incorrectly.

According to RobinCarr's data in his blog, after the release of the Dilophosaurus there are 2093 eggs in the virtual dino den. The total number of non-12HH rare eggs, which we use for our data, is 56 when you combine how many eggs each of these dinos has (their probability value). This number can help us to determine what the theoretical dino probability is. The percentages of non-12HH eggs will give us the theoretical probability.

The following table shows the theoretical probability for each species of non-12HH dino. I have included the "actual" probability that I calculated above so we can easily compare it. Remember that some percentages may not be completely accurate because the dino was released recently, ex. dilophosaurus.
 * The table is sortable. Just click on the headings to sort. The sorting arrows are not showing up for some reason.