User blog comment:BonesMcGee/Brainstorm: Potential savings in using the hurry hatch trick/@comment-5116140-20120911172249

Test of the Egg Count Hypothesis using Bones's Hurry Hatch Data

Hi Bones, Recall the fundamental assumption in the "Spinning Drum Model" is that the probability of hatching each dino is proportional to its  EggCount . To test this, I took all the data up to Sept 10th and counted how many of each dino were obtained. Then sorted.

This gives:

Recall there are only three EggCounts.

The average number N1 for each one-egg dino is 4.286

The average number N6 for each six-egg dino is 26.0

The average number N9 for each nine-egg dino is 35.67

As a check we note that

6 * N1 = 25.71 is close to N6 = 26.0

and

9 * N1 = 38.57 is close to N9 = 35.67

We conclude your data is roughly consistent with the EggCount Hypothesis for the Spinning Drum Model. The EggCount Hypothesis states that the chance of getting a rare dino on any single draw is proportional to its EggCount in the Spinning Drum.

Oddities

1. The SLoth with its egg count of 6 was never obtained! I do remember some Sloths obtained by random egg on the fusions page. There is a lot of noise, as expected for the Geometric Distribution due to its huge variation.

2. There are a few more protoceratops than expected with its EggCount of 9.

May just be noise. Not sure.