User blog comment:BonesMcGee/Brainstorm: Potential savings in using the hurry hatch trick/@comment-5116140-20120823035321/@comment-5355974-20120823042928

13 out of 15 eggs are 55 reps or less, or 87% (rounding up)

It really looks like your predictions could be accurrate; we just don't have enough data to really give it a fair shake.