User blog:BonesMcGee/Brainstorm: Potential savings in using the hurry hatch trick

The Theory
There are potentially significant cost savings to be had by using the hurry hatch trick to obtain a rare dino. If you do the math, there's a chance you can save some coins or at the very least a significant amount of time by using the trick even if you only get a Tier 1 dinosaur.

Saving coins every time isn't guaranteed, of course. You're gambling, afterall. But the odds are in your favor.

First Dino
Say you wanted to get a Tier 1 dino by fusing two common dinos. If you were to start from scratch, first you would purchase a random egg (250 coins) and let's say the result was a common dino.

Immediately after hatching your first dino, you purchase a second random egg, will take 22 hours to hatch. While waiting for the second dino to hatch, you begin raising your first dino. It will take you 15 hours and 4600 coins to raise that dino to lvl 4, the minimum age require for fusing.

Thus far, it has taken 4850 coins (250 + 4600) to raise the first dino to level 4. However, we have to subtract the coins the first dino earns per hour from its total cost. This is necessary because when you hurry hatch for a Tier 1 dino you miss out on the opportunity to earn coins during the time it takes to raise your dinos to level 4.

So, over the first 15 hours your first dino earned 940 coins. Over the next 7 hours before the 2nd dino hatches and the following 15 hours to raise the second dino to level 4, your first dino will earn another 2420 coins.

Thus, the first dino cost 4850 coins to purchase and raise but earned 3360 coins, which brings the net cost of the first dino to 1490 coins.

Second Dino
Now let's backtrack to when the 2nd dinosaur hatched. The second dino initially cost 250 coins to purchase. After hatching it takes 15 hours to raise it to level 4. We know that raising a common dino to level 4 costs 4600 plus the purchase price of 250, bringing the cost to 4850.

We also know that over the 15 hour journey to level 4 the second dino earns 940 coins. So that means the net cost of the second dino is 3910 coins.

Fusion
Now that we have two level 4 dinos, it's time to fuse. So add the net cost of the two dinos together (1490 + 3910) plus the cost of fusion (3000), and you have expended 8,400 coins to get your Tier 1 dino.

Hurry Hatching
So you could do that, or you could take a gamble with the hurry hatch trick. With the hurry hatch trick you could potentially get a Tier 1 or higher at the cost of 250 coins per attempt. Dividing the old fashioned way's grand total cost of 8400 coins by 250 coins yields just over 33.

So theoretically you could spend up to 8,250 coins using the hurry hatch trick 33 times (250 coins x 33 attempts = 8,250 coins) and you would still be saving 150 coins even if all you got was a Dimetrodon (Tier 1).

So there you have it. 33 attempts is the break even point for a Tier 1 dino.

If the end result from using the hurry hatch trick is a Tier 2 or Tier 3 dinosaur, then you could justify a much higher number of attempts. However, that's the catch. There is no way to know what tier you will get or even if you will get one at all before you give up. After more than 33 attempts, getting a Tier 1 dino egg will result in a loss. And then there's always the chance that you could reach 50, 100, or even more attempts without success. If you gave up, you are guaranteed to incur a significant loss. If you get a Tier 2 or Tier 3 dinosaur after 33+ attempts, you could still come out ahead but I don't have the specifics. Happy hurry hatching!

Hurry Hatch Data

 * Warning: For those who want to do their own analysis of the data, note that user submissions to the data set often include backdated hurry hatches. That means a hurry hatch conducted on September 1st might be added to the table on September 30th.


 * To ensure accurate analysis, copy and paste this table into excel each time you run your analysis, even if it doesn't look like a new data point has been added since you last copied and pasted it.

***Hit "SHOW" in top right corner of table to expand it***

August= September=
 * REPS = Repetitions, or the number of hurry hatch tricks attempted consecutively.
 * PROB. VAL. = Probability value. For more info, see the master list of Dinos.

Analysis
This section is under construction and is mainly directed towards Robin.

Probabilities
On 11 SEP 2012, I ran a second round of analysis of the hurry hatch data. Lady Sarah's Corythosaurus on 10 SEP 2012 was the cut off point. Here is what I found...


 * 1) Prediction: 1/4 will be 12 or less
 * Result: 64/219 were equal to 12 or less OR 29%. Not bad.
 * 1) Prediction: 1/2 will be 28 or less
 * Result: 130/219 were equal to 28 or less OR 59%. Close.
 * 1) Prediction: 1/2 will be on or equal to 13-55
 * Result: 107/219 were on or equal to 13-55 OR 49%. Awesome!
 * 1) Prediction: 3/4 will be 55 or less
 * Result: 171/219 were equal to 55 or less OR 78%. Fantastic!

Running Average
As of this moment, WE have recorded 219 dino eggs over 7746 attempts! The running average for all recorded hurry hatches up to Lady Sarah's Corythosaurus on 10 SEP 2012 is...


 * Running Average = 35!!!

That means, on average, our reported hurry hatches have cost only about 350 coins over the breakeven point of 33.6 (or 33 rounding down). Considering how much time you save hurry hatching versus doing it the old fashioned way, that is awesome!

Updates
13 SEP 2012: Added sections, headings, and sub-headings to improve readability.

12 SEP 2012: The table is now sortable! (Thank you, Don Joan!) Now you can sort all the data by any column, including TinyID, which means you can look at your own hurry hatch data in one block if you like.

11 SEP 2012: Added analysis section.

10 SEP 2012: Modified main body text to reflect Tinydude17's observation in this comment. This results in a significant reduction in the maximum number of hurry hatch attempts before incurring a loss if a Tier 1 dino is the result.

The break even point for hurry hatching a Tier 1 dino is now 33 attempts.

06 SEP 2012: Implemented some table format changes. Thanks for showing me how, WieQuadrat!

05 SEP 2012: Presenting the new tabbed version of the table. Hopefully this will save you commenters some scrolling as the data continues to flood in :)

04 SEP 2012: Thank you Wikiacon (TinyID: Shifeng) for your significant contribution to the data!

03 SEP 2012: Another special thank you...this time to Ladysarah27 (TinyID: ladysarah27) for sharing a tremendous amount of her data with us!

02 SEP 2012: Thank you to everyone who has contributed data to the table! I want to give a special thank you to Menace™ (TinyID: Godzillacity) for almost doubling our data set in one night!

21 AUG 2012: Redesigned the table with respect to RobinCarr's recommendations below. Changed the "Tier" column to "Egg" and added the "Probability Value" column.

10 AUG 2012: For the sake of keeping good records, I'll be recording the number of attempts for each successful hurry hatch trick my wife or I attempt. I also adjusted the post above to reflect the lack of dino earnings when using the hurry hatch trick. Thank you, Deen700, for pointing that out.