Talk:Fusion Reports/@comment-166.248.80.191-20120904072957/@comment-5116140-20120904130912

All your recipes were good choices. Each has about a 50% chance of getting the turtle.

SO your bad luck can be measures as 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/ 8.

That is 7/8 vilagers would have got at least 1 turtle using your three recipes.

That means you are on the right track. Good luck!